Odac warns of global shortage of oil after 2007
The final means of persuasion...bribes
The diplomatic battle: George W Bush is carrying a big stick -- and a large chequebook. Marion McKeone reports from New York on the pressures being exerted to win global support for a war on Iraq
The Franca-American Tango
Even as President Bush issued the latest in a long series of ultimatums to the UN Security Council, the United States has been working on a series of possible drafts for a second resolution that would provide UN backing for a US-led invasion of Iraq.Last week the US stepped up its policy of talking tough while carrying a big cheque book. Even as Bush told the council to ''make up its mind soon'' over military action, or the US would sidestep the UN and launch an attack with a coalition of allies, diplomats were promising everything from increased economic and military aid to moderate Arab states, to a share of Iraq's oil reserves to fretful Europeans.
French Veto Threat
Down at the UN, the Franco-American tango continued, but there was precious little talk about a French veto of a second resolution, a threat that had openly rebounded between Washington and Paris for several weeks.French President Jacques Chirac, in phone conversations with Bush on Thursday and Friday, indicated that he wanted the weapons inspectors to continue their work, but it is understood that he left the door open to supporting an eventual war.
UN Security Council Divide
For a new Security Council resolution to be passed, nine votes need to be cast in favour and no veto can be used by a permanent member state. Apart from the five permanent members, the council is made up of 10 countries that serve on a rotating basis. Germany, which has come out strongly against military action, currently holds the presidency. Angola, Bulgaria, Cameroon, Chile, Guinea, Mexico, Pakistan, Syria and Spain are the remaining non-permanent members. All have trade links or receive either military or economic aid from the US.
The Power Play
The general expectation appears to be that non-permanent members will come onside during the debate that is expected to follow Hans Blix's February 14 report. By then, Saddam may have granted more concessions to the inspectors, but the view here is that it is too late for anything short of a total climbdown by the Iraqi dictator. The US and Britain will insist that he has already breached Resolution 1441 and seek a resolution asserting this fact.
Buying Support with Bribes
Meanwhile, countries around the world are seeking to benefit from the potential war on Iraq. The United States is making generous offers of aid to secure support or non-interference from key Arab states. Egypt is demanding additional aid to defray the expected costs of the war, while Jordan and Turkey are also looking for economic benefits in exchange for their support. Israel is requesting additional military aid, and even Iran has secretly engaged in discussions with the US seeking guarantees in exchange for aid.
The Costly Sideshow
While the US is committing significant resources to secure international support for the war on Iraq, critics argue that this costly approach may do little to increase the security of the American people. The focus on Iraq and the push for pre-emptive strikes may strain efforts to combat terrorism globally and impact the perception of weapons inspections in future conflicts. The new US foreign policy doctrine of pre-emptive strikes is reshaping the international landscape, and the UN's ability to influence outcomes is increasingly in question.
Hotels and the Current Climate
Amid the tense geopolitical climate and the uncertainties surrounding the potential war with Iraq, the hotel industry is feeling the impact. As governments and organizations around the world prepare for potential conflict, travel patterns, and tourism are already being affected.
Decreased Business Travel
Many companies are implementing travel restrictions and advisories, leading to a decline in business travel. With concerns about safety and unpredictable developments, business trips are being postponed or canceled altogether. This reduction in corporate travel demand has significant consequences for the hotel industry, as business travelers are often a reliable source of revenue and occupy a significant portion of hotel rooms.
Tourism Concerns
The uncertainties surrounding the war and its potential implications have also impacted the tourism sector. Travelers are wary of visiting destinations that may be directly or indirectly affected by the conflict. Countries in the Middle East and neighboring regions are particularly vulnerable to a decline in tourism. This decline can have severe economic implications for these destinations, as tourism is often a significant contributor to their GDP.
A Shift in Travel Patterns
As travelers seek destinations deemed safer or less likely to experience disruptions due to the war, there may be a noticeable shift in travel patterns. Hotels in regions unaffected by the conflict may experience increased demand as tourists redirect their travel plans. Conversely, hotels in areas close to potential conflict zones may struggle to attract visitors.
Adapting to the Changing Environment
In this challenging context, hotels must adapt their strategies to address the changing travel landscape. This may involve targeted marketing campaigns promoting safety and security, flexible cancellation policies to ease traveler concerns, and partnerships with local tourism boards to highlight alternative attractions and experiences. Additionally, hotels may need to explore other revenue streams, such as hosting conferences or events for local businesses or government agencies.
Awaiting Stability
Ultimately, the hotel industry, like many other sectors, is awaiting stability and resolution in the geopolitical landscape. Once the uncertainties surrounding the war are resolved, it is expected that travel patterns will gradually return to normal. However, until then, hotels must navigate these challenging times and adapt their strategies to remain resilient.